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A September Song

Bali by the Numbers: Despite Officials Assurances to the Contrary, Bali's Foreign Arrivals Numbers Remain Down -27%.


Foreign Arrival figures for September 2006 show that Bali has yet to regain the momentum lost following its most recent terror incident in October of last year. And despite official pronouncements that "business is back to normal in Bali," the simple fact remains that with 118,331 foreign arrivals counted in September 2006 arrivals are down a very significant -27% month-on-month compared to September 2005 (162,102). Aggregate totals for January-September show year-to-date arrivals are down -21.92%. graphically presents arrival trends from October through September, tracking the effects of both the October 2002 and October 2005 terrorist attacks. While month-by-month trend lines exhibit a similar pattern following both incidents, the current recovery is operating on a higher plane with more foreign tourist on the island in 2006 than was the case in 2003.

Click images to enlarge

Some Crystal Ball Gazing

With arrival figures in hand through the third quarter of 2006 and barring any unexpected international or local events in the last quarter of 2006 that would have a negative impact on travel, predicts the following results for 2006:

• Using our trend-line analysis, Bali's foreign arrivals for all of 2006 will come in at around 1.18 million. That figure, if achieved, will be approximately 15% less than total arrivals recorded in 2005 (1,386,449).

• Statistically at least, arrivals for the last three months of 2006 will show a very marked improvement over the same months in 2005, bearing in mind that business plummeted in the last quarter of 2005 following the October 1st terror attack.

But, again, in an era in which the unexpected has become expected; any major global or local disturbance in the coming few months will automatically invalidate these projections.

Click images to enlarge

A Closer Look to Come

The next installment of “Bali by the Numbers” will examine September arrivals in closer detail, focusing on Bali's main markets and seeing which among them is fairing better in the current situation.

Click images to enlarge

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