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Caution: Bump Ahead?

Bali by the Numbers: February Tourist Arrivals Show Moderating Growth and Significant Market Shifts.


February 2011 foreign tourist arrivals to Bali increased 7.2% when compared to the same month in 2010, coming in at 201,320 visitors. Seen on a cumulative basis for January-February 2011, foreign tourist arrivals increased 13.25% totaling 403,980.

Click Images to Enlarge

Will it Last?

The softening of some major inbound markets to Bali – namely Japan, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, France, Germany and the Netherlands –suggest the possibility that Bali's uninterrupted spell of dynamic growth could stall in the months ahead.

Shifting Market Mix

The radical change in "pecking order" among Bali's main source markets over the past three years record the shifting fortunes of the global economy.

Japan – the long-standing and unassailable leader as a source of foreign visitors to Bali has fallen from its previously impregnable #1 pole position in 2009 to third place in 2010 and 2011. While the figures are not yet in, the horrific effects of Japan's March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami seem certain to guarantee Japan's further slide to 4th place in March or April of 2011.

Something of a contradiction on first examination, the People's Republic of China 12.21% decline in February arrivals still allowed the PRC to secure 2nd place against the even steeper 21.14% decline suffered by the Japanese market.

Malaysian visitors have now moved solidly into the top 4 of Bali arrivals, increasing 69% in February 2011 with 13,853 visitors.

South Korea's improving fortunes continues to secure it 5th place in the foreign arrival rankings, increasing 19.7% in February with 9,784 South Korean travelers coming to Bali.

In the months ahead look for Taiwan's downward spiral, decreasing 28.9% in February with 9.583 arrivals, to cost the island nation its long-held sixth place position as we predict they will be soon displace by the fast-growing Russian market which increased 20.5% in February at 7,710 visitors.

The Long-staying and high spending European markets of the Netherlands and Germany dropped by a significant 8% and 10% respectively in February.

America is staging a steady comeback, improving 8% month-on-month for February 2011 and 16.67% year-on-year.

Bali Depends on the Region

All geographic areas recorded growth during the first two months of 2011, with ASEAN increasing 66.58% against 2010. The Americas improved 22.09% during the same two-month period, while Europe's numbers improved 4.84%.

In terms of geographical market mix, Bali remains dangerously under-diversified with 71.14% of all foreign travelers to Bali emanating from the Asia-Pacific region and ASEAN.

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