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Modest Blooms in May

Bali by the Numbers: May 2011 Arrivals Show that Bali’s Halcyon Days of Double-Digit Arrival Growths May be Over.


(7/12/2011)


How times change.

Arrival figures for Bali, compared to years past, show a very modest month-on-month increase for May 2011 of 3.95% when compared to May 2010, with 204,489 arrivals recorded. Apparently, month after month of double-digit growth in Bali foreign arrivals are now quite literally a thing of the past.

On a cumulative basis for January-May 2011, Bali has broken the one-million mark recording 1,031,316 arrivals. Year-on-year arrivals are up 11.32% over 2010 covering the first five months of the year. If Bali sustains its current 11.32% growth rate through the end of 2011,  the island will end the year with a record-breaking 2.75 million arrivals.

Arrivals from Key Source Markets

Australia – Total arrivals from Australia continue to boom. May 2011 arrivals hit 56,052 – improving 18.3% over May 2011. Year-on-year Australian arrivals through the end of May totaled 278,424 – an improvement of 29.67%

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Japan – As feared and predicted, Japanese arrivals in May are reflecting the one-two punch of an economy in recession and March’s devastating earthquake and tsunami. Month-on-month Japanese arrivals were down 38.11% for May at 10,544. Year-on-year Japanese arrivals are down 24.69%.

The measure of the severity of Japan’s decline is underlined by the fact that the nation that was once the unchallenged dominating source of foreign visitors to Bali has now slid into fifth place, and likely to decline further before Japan manages to stage any kind of recovery from its current downward trend.

Taiwan – Taiwan appears to be staging a comeback. Arrivals for May increased 18.31% month-on-month with 12,706 Taiwanese coming to Bali. This news is especially heartening given a 6.39% decline in cumulative arrivals January-May 2011.

South Korea – At 11,575 visitors, South Korean tourists improved 6.74% over May 2011. This is an advance over the 0.38% decline year-on-year as compared to 2010.

Peoples Republic of China – the PRC has leaped into second place behind Australia in terms of foreing visitor totals to Bali. Mainland Chinese arrivals improved 26.90% month-on-month with 15,852 visitors. On a cumulative basis through the end of May, PRC arrivals are up 3.8%.

Malaysia – The rapid boom in Malaysian visitors is flattening somewhat with 14,443 visitors in May 2011 – a modest improvement of only 4% over May 2010. Cumulatively for the first five months of the year, Malaysian arrivals are up 21.67%.

Russia – 18.6% more Russians came to Bali in May 2011 (4,207). Russian travelers are continuing to demonstrate strong growth, up 24.9% year on year.

Netherlands – Arrivals from Holland have gone surprisingly soft, despite the re-introduction of air services from Garuda Indonesia between Amsterdam and Bali. Dutch arrivals for May 2011 were down month-on-month 35.35% at 4,470. Adding to concerns that the Dutch love affair with Bali may be cooling is an 18.74% decline in cumulative arrivals for the first five months of the year.

France – French visitors for May 2011 hit 9.534, posting a 6.17% downturn from May 2010.

U.S.A. – The U.S. market is staging a sustained recovery, improving 12.73% in May 2011 (6,348)  as compared to the same month one year before. Cumulatively, U.S. arrivals are no less equally buoyant, up 17.87% through the end of May.

Germany – German arrivals to Bali are ailing. There were 23.4% fewer Germans coming to Bali in May 2011 than one year before. The news is even gloomier on a cumulative basis, with German visitors down a whopping 52.39% through the end of May as compared to the first five months of 2010.

United Kingdom – The U.K.’s comeback stalled slightly in May – down 8.18% at 7.837 visitors when compared to May 2010. However, on a cumulative basis, U.K. visitors are up 10.03% through the end of May.


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