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Coronavirus by the Numbers (Updated 10 Feb)

Understanding Trends in the Developing Health Crisis through February 9, 2020

sing data provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) that is updated daily, Balidiscovery.com tries here to understand and interpret some of the developing trends in the novel coronavirus outbreak (2019-NCoV) by tracking developments each day from 31 January until 09 February 2020

Novel Coronavirus by the Numbers 31 January - 09 February 2020

  31-Jan 1-Feb 2-Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb 9-Feb   Av.
Global Confirmed 2019-NCoV 9,826 11,953 14,557 17,391 20,630 24,544 28,276 31,481 34,886 37,588    
Global Confirmed 2019-NCoV New last 24 hrs N/A 2,128 2,604 2,838 3,241 3,935 3,732 3,205 3,419 2,676   3,086
Daily Growth Rate of  New Cases 2019-NCoV Globally N/A 21.65% 21.79% 19.47% 18.64% 18.98% 15.21% 11.34% 10.82% 7.75%   16.18%
                         
China Confirmed 2019-NCoV 9,720 11,821 14,411 17,238 20,741 24,365 28,060 31,211 34,598 37,251    
China Confirmed 2019-NCoV New last 24 hrs N/A 2,102 2,590 2,831 3,235 3,893 3,695 3,151 3,401 2,657   3,062
Daily Rate of Growth New Cases 2019-NCoV N/A 21.63% 21.91% 19.62% 20.33% 17.48% 15.17% 11.23% 10.86% 7.67%   17.28%
                         
Global Severe Cases 2019-NCoV 1527 1,795 2,110 2,296 2,788 3,219 3,859 4,321 6,101 6,188    
Global Severe Cases 2019-NCoV New last 24 hours N/A 268 315 186 492 431 640 962 1,280 87   518
Daily Rate of Growth Severe Cases 2019-NCoV N/A 17.55% 17.55% 8.82% 21.43% 15.46% 19.89% 11.98% 41.20% 1.43%   17.26%
                         
Global Deaths 2019-N-CoV 213 259 304 361 425 491 564 637 723 812    
Global Deaths Cases 2019-NCoV last 24 Hours N/A 46 45 57 64 66 73 73 86 89   67
Daily Growth Rate in Global Fatalities N/A 21.60% 17.38% 18.75% 17.73% 15.53% 14.87% 12.95% 13.50% 12.31%   16.07%
                         
Fatality Rate  % of Confirmed Global Cases 2019-NCoV 2.17% 2.17% 2.09% 2.08% 2.06% 2.00% 1.99% 2.02% 2.07% 2.16%   2.08%
                         
Cases Confirmed 2019-NCoV Outside China 106 132 146 153 159 191 216 270 288 307    
Cases Confirmed 2019-NCoV New Last 24 hr. outside China N/A 26 14 7 6 32 25 54 18 19   23
Daily Growth Rate of Cases Confirmed outside China N/A 24.53% 10.61% 4.80% 3.93% 20.13% 13.09% 25.00% 6.67% 6.60%   12.82%
Non-China Cases of 2019-NCoV as % of Global Cases 1.08% 1.10% 1.00% 0.88% 0.77% 0.78% 0.76% 0.86% 0.83% 0.82%   0.90%
                         
Death Case Outside China 2019-NCoV 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1   0.80
Non China Mainland Cases as % of Global Deaths 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.3289% 0.2770% 0.2353% 0.2037% 0.1773% 0.1570% 0.1383% 0.1232%   0.16%
                         
Number of Countries with Confirmed 2019-NCoV 19 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24   23.10
% of World Nations with Confirmed Cases 2019-NcoV 9.74% 11.79% 11.79% 11.79% 11.79% 12.31% 12.31% 12.31% 12.31% 0.123077   11.80%
                         
Source of DATA: World Health Organization                        
© Balidiscovery.com                        
  • What the figures show:

    • The number of confirmed 2019-NCoV Cases has increased by 283% over the 10 days 31 January – 09 February 2020.
    • New cases of 2019-NCoV continue to grow at a rate of 7.5-22% each day. Perhaps too early to declare a retreating trend, the lower "new" cases rate of 10.82% on 08 February and 7.75% on 09 February offer some cause for optimism when compared to the much higher average daily growth rate for 10 days of 16.18%.
    • The number of severe cases where the patients being treated are in a critical condition is growing globally, now totaling 6,188. There are cases now being reported with people contracting the virus but regaining their health before fully-blown symptoms develop.
    • The global death rate for 2019-NCoV infections is now at 2.16%. This is a rate that suggests that with proper care and treatment the coronavirus infection can be medically survivable by nearly 98% of those infected. Of concern to epidemiologists, however, is that if the disease becomes highly contagious and even if 2019-NCoV is highly survivable, a high rate of contagion will result in a high number of fatalities on an aggregate basis. For example, if 100,000 people become infected the number of deaths would increase (based on current data) to 2,000. A million sufferers would equate to 20,000 fatalities, also based on current models and projections.
    • So far, efforts to limit the disease’s spread geographically have been largely successful with well under 1% of all 2019-NCoV cases occurring outside China. As of February 9th, only one death has been officially recorded by the WHO (CNN reports 2) as occurring outside of China.
    • The total number of countries reporting infections stands at 24. 24 countries represent    12.31 % of the 195 countries comprising the global community.

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